Traffic Safety Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fatal Crashes in 2020–2022

Abstract

Introduction

After a brief reduction during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic, traffic fatalities in the United States surged to the highest levels in many years. Initially experts hypothesized that the increase was due in large part to reduced traffic volumes facilitating speeding. However, traffic fatality rates remained elevated throughout 2021 and 2022, despite traffic returning to near pre-pandemic levels. The research reported here seeks to understand how traffic safety on U.S. roads has changed since the onset of the pandemic by comparing the number and characteristics of traffic fatalities during this period to what would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred and pre-pandemic trends continued.

Methodology

Pre-pandemic data from years 2010–2019 were used to develop statistical models of the number of traffic fatalities each month, taking into account relationships with numbers of fatalities in previous months, seasonal patterns, and trends. These models were then used to predict—or “forecast”—how many fatalities would have been expected in each month during the pandemic, had the pandemic not occurred and pre-pandemic patterns and trends continued. Actual numbers of traffic fatalities during the pandemic were then compared to these forecasts. Data were from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System database of all fatal crashes in the United States and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Multiple Cause of Death Mortality database of all deaths (from all causes) in the United States.

Key Findings

After decreasing sharply during March and April 2020 while most states had stay-at-home orders in effect, monthly traffic fatalities returned to typical levels in May 2020. Then, in June, traffic fatalities surged to levels significantly greater than would have been expected without the pandemic and remained elevated throughout the remainder of 2020 as well as the entirety of 2021 and 2022. From May 2020 through December 2022, 114,528 people were killed in traffic crashes on U.S. roads, an estimated 16,771 (17%) more than would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred and pre-pandemic trends continued (see Figure).

Findings reveal that a disparate share of the increase in traffic fatalities was experienced by disadvantaged populations, highlighting the importance of working to provide equitable access to safe transportation for vulnerable and disadvantaged populations.

Results also highlight growing traffic safety concerns that do not appear to be attributable to the pandemic. Pedestrian fatalities are a salient example. Pedestrian fatalities increased substantially during the pandemic but largely followed pre-pandemic trends. This suggests that more holistic approaches to traffic safety—such as the Safe System Approach—will be necessary to address these adverse trends.

This Research Brief examines fatal crashes, drivers involved, and victims killed in detail to provide insights into persistent traffic safety concerns as well as emergent or growing issues.